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NBA: Game 3 brings big-time revenge angles
2009-06-10

The Lakers and Magic head to Orlando to resume their NBA Finals’ series, with Game 3 coming Tuesday night. Judging by the numerous angles focused on the concept of revenge, we should expect the Magic to climb back into the series in a lower scoring game. Take a look at some of these revenge trends as we preview the game, then head on over to the GAME MATCHUP page for more key betting information. Orlando is a 4-1/2 point favorite, but according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends, only 52% of bettors are leaning that way, a low percentage for this magnitude of a game.

By now everyone knows the Lakers head to Orlando with a 2-0 lead, but if the Magic’s botched layup/missed goaltending call at the end of regulation had been scored, this series would be tied 1-1. That is all the difference in the world according to history, as only three teams have ever come back from this deficit to win the NBA Finals, most recently the Miami Heat in 2006.

The “comfortable” lead has not changed Kobe Bryant’s focus however. Bryant has a promise for Game 3 on Tuesday night.

"We're about to kick it up," he said. "You'd better believe it. We're close. You see what I'm saying? This is the finals. We're going to be ready to go."

Courtney Lee missed a wide-open, alley-oop layup that would have won Game 2 at the fourth-quarter buzzer Sunday night. It was another chapter in a long history of Magic misery, one that now has them 0-6 in finals games.

Orlando has been able to come back from seemingly every heartbreak this season - injuries, four last-second losses in the playoffs and series deficits in two rounds. But this could be too tough a challenge.

"We've just got to go home and take care of business," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "The Lakers did a good job of protecting their home, and now it's our turn to do the same thing. We've been in some tough situations. We've just got to fight our way out."

The Magic would need quite a turnaround. Their backcourt has been dreadful. Rafer Alston and Jameer Nelson, who returned for the finals after being out since early February because of shoulder surgery, were so inconsistent that Van Gundy benched them for most of the fourth quarter to have 6-foot-10 forward Hedo Turkoglu run the point.

The Magic had 20 turnovers, just 22 assists and no true ballhandler to make the Lakers pay for double-teaming Howard.

Don’t consider the series over yet however. One of the streakiest teams in the league all season, Orlando has shot well at home. It plays with a carefree attitude, and Bryant says that's reason to be wary.

"This is a very loosey-goosey team we're playing against," he said. "You seen some of the shots they hit. Those are tough shots - supposed to be tough shots. For them it's like shooting fish in a barrel. They're just thinking about Game 3, and so are we."

As mentioned in the opening, one of the key handicapping concepts backing the Magic for Game 3 is REVENGE. Orlando boasts several Top StatFox Power Trends focused on this motivation. Including the Game 2 Magic ATS win and UNDER result, here are a few of the revenge angles that will be in play for Tuesday’s Game 3:

* ORLANDO is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 102.2, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
* ORLANDO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 100.9, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 1*)
* ORLANDO is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)

The Lakers have been a solid bet as a road dog though. Over the last two seasons, they are 24-12 ATS in that role.

In terms of the total, revenge for Orlando may also play a role in taking this game UNDER the posted number of 198:

* ORLANDO is 26-15 UNDER (+9.5 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 101.6, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 1*)

Tip time is set for 9:00 PM ET on ABC.

NBA Finals Wagering Preview
2009-06-04

“Do you believe in Magic?” Whether you like the original hit song by the Lovin’ Spoonful from 1965 and the countless times it has been used in television commercials or the updated version by Disney Channel’s Aly and AJ, the question remains the same. Do you believe in the Orlando Magic? Oddsmakers and most bettors don’t, instead choosing to side with the heavily favored Lakers (-260) for the series, according to Sportsbook.com.

Dwight Howard and his gang of long range bombers have certainly been up to the test, eliminating Philadelphia as expected, Boston as presumed (without Kevin Garnett) and Cleveland most unexpectedly. In many ways Orlando has grown up right before our very eyes.

The Magic gave away games to the Sixers and Celtics, yet closed out each on the road to advance. When LeBron James made thaumaturgy shot to save Cleveland in Game 2 of East Finals, Orlando could have suffered carry over, yet did not.

We have seen the maturation of Dwight Howard from somewhat passive Clark Kent to angry superstar, demanding the ball and when the pill came his way, put up exemplary numbers to lead his team. Even coach Stan Van Gundy, who has been come under much scrutiny (here for example), has grown as head coach, working out details with Howard and not letting ego get in the way and has his team four wins away from being NBA champions.

Do you believe in the Magic?

Oddsmakers, like those at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to, making the Lakers -260 favorites to take the series. The most popular exact game wager is Los Angeles in six (+220 bet). Others don’t necessarily see it that way.

Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com offered this about The Finals - “Interesting technical aspects conflict in this matchup. The Lakers have been miserable in championship finals the past two rounds, going 3-8 SU and 0-10-1 ATS. On the flip side they've pushed the Magic around in the series, going 29-10 SU and 24-12-1 ATS, despite dropping both games this season. The feeling here is it would be no surprise if either team wins.”

Also made a call to Joe Nelson of Nellysports.com, who is on the Playbook roster and he gave his insights. “The Magic made at least ten 3-point shots in all four games against the Lakers in the regular season the last two years, winning three of the four games. Orlando shot over 40 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they continue to shoot well from long-range, the Magic will win this series and become the NBA champions.”

Nelson added, “The Lakers are a heavy favorite for the series but with the Magic winning twice in Los Angeles in the regular season (last two years), it would not be a surprise to see Orlando steal one of the first two games. Much like last season the Finals will feature extreme coast-to-coast travel with over 2,500 miles separating these venues. The Lakers went 0-6 ATS in Finals last season and Los Angeles was just 5-5 ATS in home contests in the first three rounds of the playoffs. With two impressive wins to wipe out Denver in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers have alleviated some of the concerns raised early in the playoffs but this will be a tough match-up for Los Angeles and Orlando has the talent and versatility to be a serious threat in the series despite the solid underdog status.”

Orlando has given several reasons to like them. The Magic are 12-7 in the playoffs and after dropping first four games to Philly as favorites, they are 11-4 ATS since. Orlando is 5-5 SU and ATS on the road under postseason pressure and 32-19 straight up and against the number for the entire season. Hedo Turkoglu and the fellas can play with teams scoring bundles of points, because of perimeter shooting and are 16-4 ATS in road games versus offensive clubs scoring 103 or more points a game.

The Lakers have shown unwillingness to go all out until necessary since the playoffs started, which could prove fatal against Orlando. Denver made a ton of long range shots in first four encounters against Lakers, due to poor defensive rotations. Derek Fisher is still defensive liability and Lamar Odom; it depends which multiple personality shows up at game time. Howard has the strength and power to push around Pau Gasol and draw fouls expediently on Andrew Bynum.
“Do you believe in Magic”

Steve Makinen of StatFox.com thinks Orlando can cause Phil Jackson’s squad trouble, just not enough to wager against them. “Last I saw, Orlando swept this regular season series, while the Lakers took both games from the Cavaliers. In my opinion, oddsmakers have inflated the line of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by at least 1-1/2 points, installing L.A. as a 6-point favorite. If you recall last year, Los Angeles was overwhelmed in the finals by an outstanding defensive club in Boston. While Orlando isn’t quite as good overall or defensively as that team, the Magic are still strong enough to compete and possibly win this series. In the end I figure it comes down to how well Orlando shoots it from the perimeter. If it’s anything like the regular season in which the Magic made 12 3-point shots in each game versus the Lakers, they will win. However, I think the series format of home court advantage (2-3-2) favors L.A., and that will be the deciding factor.”

Everything since being humiliated 131-92 in Game 6 at Boston last year has pointed to this for Los Angeles. The Lakers are well-rested and are 8-1 ATS when playing only their second game in seven days this season. Gasol showed his wherewithal in making big baskets in Games 5 and 6 against Denver and could force Howard into foul trouble if he becomes overaggressive.

Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are primarily perimeter players and if Odom shows up mentally and Trevor Ariza continues to distinguish himself, the Lakers should be able to hold down the scoring of this duo. On the other end of the floor, Odom can be a handful for either, with inside and outside capabilities. The Lakers bench has become increasingly more useful, as the dates have come off the calendar since the end of the regular season. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton have all given efficient minutes since mid-May.

Then you have the “Kobe” factor. Bryant was denied ring he so dearly wants last season and has been on a mission since. He’s still selfish from time to time, however, in the last couple of years, that has had more to do with desire to win, than just wanting to improve image. Whether it is Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus trying to defend Bryant, he should school them individually and carve up Magic defense when they try and double team with his crisp, accurate passes.

Lastly, is the coaching difference. Phil Jackson was strangely out-maneuvered by Doc Rivers last spring, however in hindsight, Boston had more players motivated towards a cause and Rivers pushed all the right buttons with what was a better team. Jackson was at his best against Denver. After getting a read on exactly what the Nuggets were doing, he had his team effectively took away what Denver did best in last two games and Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were disabled after strong beginning.

Like any coach, when things are going well, they look smart, when they don’t, it’s about how they react. If the Magic lose first two games at Staples Center, does the surly side of Van Gundy return? If the Lakers are able to deny Howard touches, does that create more friction between Superman and the coach? It has been Van Gundy’s M.O. to micromanage when situations become stressful, how will he respond? This could be telling factor in this series.

The action starts Thursday night on ABC, with Lakers as 6.5-point favorites and total of 206. Before placing wager, know the underdog is on 6-0 ATS roll.

Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?

NBA: 25 Top NBA Finals Trends
2009-06-03

The 2009 NBA Finals might not offer the matchup that everyone expected, but it should still be a competitive series, and one that commands attention from bettors everywhere. Besides all of the specific key matchup info that we have available for you on the GAME MATCHUP for this intriguing series, take a look at this list of 25 Top NBA Finals’ Betting Angles we’ve put together for you. They are broken up into several categories. After soaking this up, head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action yourself.

EASTERN/WESTERN CONFERENCE TRENDS

* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has won seven straight NBA Finals games against the spread after the West had won eight of the prior 10.

* Overall, since ’97, the WESTERN CONFERENCE holds a 37-29 SU edge, but the ATS series is tied 32-32-2.

* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has only been the FAVORITE in 21 of the last 67 NBA Finals’ games. Their record in that role: 18-3 SU & 12-9 ATS.

* The WESTERN CONFERENCE has accumulated a 33-10 SU & 22-19-2 ATS mark as chalk in the NBA Finals since ’97.

FAVORITE/UNDERDOG TRENDS

* Dating back to ’97, ROAD TEAMS playing as FAVORITES or in pick em’ spreads are 12-2 SU & 9-4-1 ATS.

* The UNDERDOG team won four of the six games in the 2008 NBA Finals against the spread.

* SMALL HOME FAVORITES have been a great bet in the NBA Finals, as those laying 4-1/2 points or less are 18-4 SU & 15-7 ATS since ’97.

* It’s been a dangerous proposition to lay big points in the NBA Finals of late. Dating back to 2000, FAVORITES of 7-1/2 points or more are 9-3 SU but just 2-9-1 ATS.

OVER/UNDER TRENDS

* UNDER has been the total of choice in NBA Finals games of late, 10-6 over the course of the last three series’.

* Thursday’s Game 1 of the ’09 Finals between Orlando and the Lakers will be the first Finals’ game in over 12 years with a total of 200 or more.

* In the last 20 NBA Finals’ games with posted totals of 190 or above, the OVER has been the winning total 12 times, as opposed to 8 UNDER’s.

SERIES GAME NUMBER TRENDS

* The HOME TEAM is 5-1 SU & ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals dating back to 2003.

* Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone UNDER the total five straight times.

* The HOME TEAM is also 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in Game 2 of the NBA Finals since ’04, with the last four teams owning home court advantage in the series going up 2-0.

* Although HOME TEAMS own a 4-1 SU edge in the L5 Game 3’s of the NBA Finals, the ROAD TEAMS have swept the last three ATS.

* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has owned Game 4 of the NBA Finals of late, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03.

* FAVORITES have also dominated Game 4 in the NBA Finals, 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS since ’97.

* Home court advantage virtually disappears once Game 5 of the NBA Finals arrives, as the last 18 games from then on have been split 9-9 SU with ROAD TEAMS owning a distinct 12-6 ATS edge.

* OVER has been the correct total wager in nine of the last 13 NBA Finals Game 5’s and beyond.

SEED NUMBER TRENDS

* There have been three teams in the NBA Finals playing as seeds #3 or lower since ’02. They have performed very well: At home, those teams are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in that span. On the road, they are 5-4 SU & 5-2-2 ATS.

* #1 seeds have had some trouble protecting the home court vs. non-#1 seeds, just 3-7 SU & 2-6-2 ATS since ’01 in the NBA Finals. However, on the road they are 6-1 ATS in that same time frame.

SCORING TRENDS

* The benchmark point total for HOME TEAMS to reach is 96 points in the NBA Finals. When doing so, they are 26-5 SU & 18-11-2 ATS since ’97.

* When HOME TEAMS have eclipsed the 92-point mark in the NBA Finals, OVER the total is 23-9 since ’97. When they don’t score 93 points or more, the UNDER is 31-3.

* For ROAD TEAMS, the magic-mark seems to be 93 points. When they reach that total, they are 14-7 SU & 19-1-1 ATS since ‘98.

* Although a point total for any team of 80 or less this year seems unlikely between the Magic and Lakers, past ROAD TEAMS that have failed to eclipse the 80-point mark are just 2-16 SU & ATS in the NBA Finals since ’97.

NBA: Lakers stir pot, try to chew up Nuggets (9:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-05-29

It turned out to be true; Kobe Bryant of the Lakers really does have teammates that want to win and are willing to put forth the effort to do so. Because Kobe finally was comforted with company, Los Angeles is within one game of return trip to NBA Finals, though not without a little controversy along the way, which makes for good playoff fodder. After reading more about this Game 6 Western Conference Finals encounter, be sure to head right over to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for the latest info to make sure you’re on the right side of the wagering action.

An anonymous member of the Denver Nuggets told the Denver Post, "The Lakers paid $50,000 to win that game," he said. "They got their money's worth." He was referring to 25 grand in fines David Stern’s minions handed out to coach Phil Jackson and the Lakers organization for comments after Game 4.

Denver’s George Karl lamented essentially, the squeaky wheel gets taken care of and the Lakers got the benefit of calls for critical Game 5. Evidently Karl has no sense of history, since this coaching showmanship has gone on since Eddie Gottlieb’s Philadelphia Warriors defeated the Chicago Staggs to win first ever NBA title in 1947.

Having watched the entire game with no sound (don’t ask, just trust it made sense to me), I never got the sense the officiating was one-sided. I did however take note that Denver stopped taking the ball to the rim in the fourth quarter and was 5 for 21 shooting in last 12 minutes. I also noticed the strong interior defense of Denver completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers ran screens to set up isolation plays and scored six baskets that I recall within three feet of basket.

The first 17 minutes of the game was played like any regular season game, as neither team was emotionally involved, until both teams had manufactured exciting dunks, which revved up the crowd and the emotions of players.

Lamar Odom, showed why he can be the difference between L.A. being among the best teams, to NBA champs when he adds 19 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks. Derek Fisher tossed in a dozen points and though he saw limited minutes, Andrew Bynum contributed when on the floor. In fact, the Lakers bench outscored the Denver reserves 34-26, which is telling, with final margin of victory nine points.

Denver is 17-7 ATS revenging a road loss and is backed into corner. The Nuggets never matched the same intensity they had the first two games in La-La Land, even as they built seven-point lead midway thru the third quarter. This was proven as they had no answer to blunt Lakers rush that saw them run off 23 of next 28 points to wrestle control of contest. The Lakers finally challenged Karl’s troops with unfamiliar style, playing intense defense.

The Lakers enter Game 6 as five-point underdogs and are 8-3 ATS when Sportsbook.com or another oddsmaker places them in that position. Only one game has exceeded the total in West Finals and Los Angeles is 9-1 UNDER in conference finals. Denver is 7-0 against the number off a straight up loss and is 8-1 ATS as home favorites. Of the last 12 games the Nuggets have played against winning teams, 10 have gone UNDER the number.

It’s do-or-die for Carmelo Anthony and mates, and as the Lakers have shown, they don’t necessarily have the killer instinct to polish off opponent. If should be quite an atmosphere at the Pepsi Center, with Denver trying to avoid falling to 3-11 ATS when trailing in playoff series and head back to downtown Los Angeles for Sunday showdown.

NBA: Cleveland and backers in search of answers (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

It’s not a great time to be a Cleveland basketball fan, because what looked like a return to the NBA Finals is in serious jeopardy. The Cavaliers situation has everything to do with what is taking place on the court, not preconceived notions. Cleveland may have one of the two best players in basketball; however the team is not as good as Orlando’s. The margin of difference is not dramatic, but it is enough to matter and Cleveland backers have four losing wagering tickets to prove it in this series. Still, the Cavs are a hefty favorite tonight and most bettors figure they’ll extend this series to a 6th game. Get the latest percentage breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.

So what have been the differences to this point, let’s examine.

Orlando plays an unusual style of offense; basically they have Dwight Howard as only true post player, surrounded by four perimeter players. Howard, though limited in offensive moves, has superior strength over Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao and its laughable to suggest Ben Wallace would do better job than either of those two. Howard has had his way in the paint and uses his quickness to snatch offensive rebounds and have put-backs.

When Cleveland decides to double-team Howard, this leaves open the Magic’s array of shooters, who either can make medium or long distance shots, or drive to the basket thru open lanes created by doubling-down on Howard. It is clear the Cavs players are much more comfortable double-teaming within 5-15 feet range, as compared to being spread out like Orlando forces them to do at greater distances. This leaves coach Mike Brown with a real dilemma, either drink the poison or be injected with it.

Though Mo Williams and Delonte West are normally reliable shooters, they have not been in this series, not even close. This was never more evident than in Game 4, when the Cavaliers where moving the ball crisply and players that were able to get into the teeth of Orlando defense were kicking out passes to Williams and West and neither looked like they could make a shot if the basket was 2-feet larger in diameter. West to his credit worked on isolation matchups and was effective on the block in postup situations. Unfortunately, this twosome was gruesome 0-6 beyond the arc.

Cleveland returns home, where they are 44-3 (31-16 ATS), with one of the losses coming in the East Finals. As mentioned previously, one of the most difficult challenges for a sports bettor to overcome is believing what you are seeing and letting go of paradigms. Though Cleveland had the best regular season record and breezed thru first two rounds, they were 2-8 ATS versus teams that had 70 percent or higher win percentage during the regular season and four more losses have been added during this series.

Because Orlando had never accomplished much in the postseason, they were fairly easy to dismiss going up against Cleveland. The fact is the Magic are 32-18 SU and ATS on the road and though they were hammered a couple times in the postseason, to be that strong as a visitor speaks to the team’s true value.

Also, matchups are important and seeing Orlando is 10-4 and 13-1 ATS against the Cavaliers, this proves they have the physical and physiological edge.

Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 7.5-point favorite with total of 190. For the Cavs to force Game 6 and beyond, they have to have starters play as they have all season. Orlando has gone through shooting droughts and still managed to make enough baskets to matter, Cleveland has not. The Cavs need to find help off the bench as well, since they are being buried by Magic reserves. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss and 17-6 against the spread if it was three points or less.

Cleveland has too often talked, instead of played in this series. Even coach Brown is living in make-believe land. “This is about as even of a series as you can ask for. They’ve just made one or two plays down the stretch more than us. But I still feel the confidence, I still feel the togetherness and I still feel like we have a chance to win this,” Brown said. Coach, I hope you know this, but it is those one or two critical plays in games that make the difference between wins and losses and your team isn’t making them, no matter how much you love each other.
Though Orlando won’t discuss it, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season and teams with 3-1 leads in NBA playoffs are 182-8 in league history to finish off series as winners.

The action continues on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern.