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NBA: Role players are the wagering key in Game 4
2008-06-12

The tape of Game 3 of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame, with a grand total of four players scoring in double figures and the total coming in 27.5-points below projected oddsmakers’ number. Game 4 offers new and exciting wagering opportunities, including a 7-point spread on which 72% of early bettors are backing the underdog Celtics.

Regardless of how it looked, the series picked up some juice with the Lakers winning, meaning everyone is able to stay the weekend in Los Angeles and maybe head down the coast and catch a little U.S. Open golf action. Kobe Bryant finally stepped up his game with 36 points and no way L.A. wins without the 20 from Sasha Vujacic. For Boston, this had to be mildly disheartening, Ray Allen is starting to place like the guy who wore a Seattle and Milwaukee uniform previously, but Paul Pierce managed to miss 14 of 16 shot attempts.

Before pressing on, this 2-3-2 format is proven how stupid it really is this season. ESPN’s John Barry was quoted after Game 3 (as was Phil Jackson) saying he thought it was a jet lag game. Neither team was sharp from flying cross country. Fair enough, then why will their be two games in this series played with two days of rest in the same city, with potentially another cross-country flight with just one day between the sports most important games?

Game Four of the series will be about who shows up to make a meaningful contribution. In the boxscore, Lamar Odom is listed as PF, commonly known as power forward and Vlad Radmanovic is shown as SF, a shooting forward. Odom has was once again a non-factor, shooting 2-9 and seldom in position to make positive plays, yet maybe in his case, the PF stands for personal fouls, since he picked up five again. Vlad Rad saw his minutes fall to 13, as his defensive deficiencies are visibly noticed and his lack of offense (3 points) can not overcome.

If the Lakers expect to improve upon 11-3-1 ATS record off a win, both of those players along with Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher have to play with more aplomb. Gasol has been as soft as a marshmallow in the middle, making his chest-thumping appear comical, when like an NFL cornerback burned six times in a row, jumps up to celebrate after he made a big hit on receiver 20 yards down the field. Coming into the Finals, it was thought Fisher’s experience would create an edge over the Celtics Rajon Rondo, it hasn’t. If the Lakers expect to make this a best two of three, the aforementioned four individuals have to bring their game and attitude to Staples Center for Los Angeles to win and move to 9-3 ATS as home favorites.

For all the good Rondo had done in Boston, he was discombobulated when Bryant started Game 3 guarding him. He was unable to get into the flow thereafter, before rolling is ankle, making him questionable for tonight. This becomes a real issue for the Celtics, since Rondo whole game is based on quickness and speed, without these traits, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are next options, suggesting these slow afoot, shoot-first point guards may see greater ball pressure from the Lakers, as well as double-teaming to force them to make snap judgments. Coach Doc Rivers will need to implore his back-ups to get the ball over half court quicker, since on average, the Celtics start their offensive sets just under three seconds slower when Rondo is not in the game in this series. How this trio plays tonight, will go a long way in determining what Boston’s 3-7 ATS road record will be after the game.

For the C’s to rebound in Game 4, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can not play the same again. Pierce played like was pushing too hard, trying to prove to posse; he was California cool, while showing street toughness being back home on the big stage. Look for him to be more relaxed, after practicing a few gang signs. Boston is 29-12 against the spread on the road after playing as an underdog and Garnett personally let a golden opportunity slip thru his fingers. Garnett was 6-21, totaling 13 points. When he set up shop in or near the lane, the less athletic Gasol is rendered useless to stop him. When he drifted out on the perimeter as he often prefers to, coach Phil Jackson could have gotten Radmanovic more minutes.

When asked after Game 3 why he didn’t demand the ball more in the post, since the Celtics offense is more fluid, Garnett responded, "...Hell, if I knew that, I would have done it ... Obviously in the course of a game you try to mix things up ... but for the most part, I watched this game ... But you're right. I probably do need to take the ball to the basket a little more." Just think about how good he would have been playing with Michael Jordan as second fiddle.

As expected, a win by the favorite means the number goes down and the Lakers are 7.5-point favorites with Total having dipped to 191 at Sportsbook.com. The Celtics have covered each contest in this series and are 8-1 ATS when underdogs in the 5-10 point range. Los Angeles has yet to cover versus the C’s in five tries this season.

Even with the total dropping, coach Rivers club is 14-6 UNDER as a road underdog this season, while L.A. is 16-4 UNDER after a win by six points or less this season.

Expect the stars to shine with tipoff set for 9:05 Eastern, since they will ultimately decide Game 4, however it will be the other players for both teams that will put these individuals in position to be adored.

StatFox Power Line – Lakers by 5

NBA: Betting Lakers might require strong stomach (9:05 PM, ABC)
2008-06-10

Heading back to Los Angeles, it was the Lakers who were supposed to be in control of the NBA Finals’ series. Instead, it’s the Celtics up 2-0 and threatening to blow the series wide open. Oddsmakers apparently haven’t taken notice, installing the hosts as 9-1/2 point chalk, much to the delight of 71% of early bettors, who are backing Boston against the spread.

Remember being in pre-school or first grade or possibly with your children; playing games were you had to come up with answers to teachers questions? The idea was to you as a child or anyone, come up with a list of answers to individual questions. It could be a fascinating topic, often not thinking of the answers others would happen to think of. For example, if the question would be, what are things that are soft, thoughts like pillows, ice cream, and a rabbit come to mind or for more creative types, the sun setting on a placid lake. For this composite list of soft things, add the Los Angeles Lakers.

Bettors universally assumed the Lakers and Kobe Bryant in particular would be spitting venom in Game 2, and took Los Angeles from opening line of +2, all the way to -1.5 at tipoff. Instead, the Lakers were like a big dog asleep on his back. From the beginning of the second quarter, until the start of the last stanza, they were “out” every-thing(ed) by Boston. Out- shot, rebounded, passed, dunked, defended and most importantly out-hustled. The Celtics won the middle portion of the game 63-39, in dominating fashion.

Thou Paul Gasol’s numbers show 17 points and 10 rebounds, not one of those figures were critical and thus far it is obvious the Spaniard couldn’t box out a statue of John Quincy Adams. Evidently teams never ran a pick and roll, free throw line extended against the Memphis Grizzlies, since Gasol is alarming out of position, leaving the baseline wide open, explaining how Rajon Rando could have 16 assists in game two.
Boston has played like a team wanting a championship, bringing lunch pale and getting into defensive stance. They have double-teamed Bryant at every opportunity and not one other player in a purple uniform stepped up in first two contests. Lamar Odom has been out of position on both ends of the floor and is playing more confused than useful. If Los Angeles is not to fall to 8-19 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, coach Phil Jackson has to find players who can match the C’s thirst for excellence.
After last contest, Jackson had to say something about free throw disparity (38-10) and though a more than a few calls were questionable, the referee’s are human and Boston was so much more aggressive, they earned the right to have the official’s benefit of the doubt. The Lakers made reserve Leon Powe look like the perfect replacement for Kevin Garnett in the future; as he scored 21 points, but did it with what L.A. lacked, hustle and heart. The Celtics are 28-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog.

In a somewhat curious twist, the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com are banking on bettors and Lakers backers to support Los Angeles as 9.5-point favorites, with total of 195.5. No doubt the Lakers 8-0 (6-2 ATS) playoff record at Staples Center is impressive; nonetheless, the Celtics have won and covered all four meetings between these long-time rivals and the first two games before Jan. 1, seems like a moot point at present.

For Los Angeles to get back into series, defense is number one prerequisite. They can’t be so easily out of position and must button down gaping holes and not run out to open shooters, leaving chasms to basket. L.A. is 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more. The bench must have more production, especially by Luke Walton, who has been a no-show thus far in the Finals. The Lakers keep falling into Boston’s preferred tempo, and need to make them play more uncomfortably. Send four players to defensive glass and have perimeter player on opposite side of where shot was taken, be a mid-court first pass option to force tempo. Finally, show gumption, the feeling in viewing the body language of L.A. is they are surprised Boston is as physically and mentally tougher than San Antonio.

The two teams combined to make 19 three-point shots in last encounter and with the Celtics 9-14 beyond the arc, they are 13-2 ATS after a game where they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or better this season. Doc Rivers will ask for same energy and 48 minutes to take commanding 3-0. If they maintain poise, they’ll just have to do what guitar legend Eric Clapton wrote about from his Cream of Clapton CD, the song - Blues Power, where the lyrics say, “Keep on, keep on, keep on keeping on.”

Game Three from downtown Los Angles starts a bit after 9 Eastern on ABC.

NBA: Detroit Bettors need Chauncey Billups
2008-05-22

Chauncey Billups has been the face of the Detroit Pistons’ playoff runs for the past six years. His disappearing act in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals has bettors weary, as over 80% of them are backing host Boston as a 4-1/2 point favorite in Game 2.

If Billups’ hamstring is 100 percent, with 13 days of rest since last game, then those who bet Detroit to win the series, better start betting Boston in game by game side bets, to recoup the money they will eventually lose. In Game 1, Billups showed the explosiveness of former teammate Darko Milicic (not good) and was decidedly outplayed by Boston second-year Celtics floor leader Rajon Rondo (also not good).

Billups averaged 21.2 points and 7.4 assists in the previous five playoff games against Philadelphia and Orlando, before going down against the Magic. Richard Hamilton was able to step his game against the Magic, but the league’s best defensive team did not allow that to happen on its home court. "I feel good," Billups said after 88-79 loss. "I feel good." If feeling good leads to nine points and two assists in 31 minutes, Pistons backers better run and hide.

Detroit fans can turn to the fact; the Pistons are 13-5 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average of 10.1 points per game. Another positive is this Motor City bunch is 12-3 ATS after allowing 90 points or less three straight games, proving they can step up it up a notch when called to. However, Billups lack of playing, especially as these heighten awareness times is worrisome, even to teammates. "He'd better get it back quick because the game isn't waiting on us to get well," said Pistons veteran guard Lindsey Hunter. "I saw he was hesitant, but it had better take one game for him to get back."

In viewing the action of series opener, it appeared Detroit, not Boston had gone thru a seven game series and had to play just over two days later. As ESPN announcers were talking about the Pistons window of championship opportunity closing, having won one NBA title despite five prior trips to East Finals, they played like most presumed the Celtics would. Rasheed Wallace looked like he was playing defense in quicksand, his feet were so slow. Richard Hamilton had no “Rip” to his game, compiling 15 points against an aging Ray Allen. Detroit looked every bit the team that is 5-16 ATS in Conference Finals.

This leads to something that surfaces annually now in Detroit, how good a game and playoff coach is Flip Saunders? How good was the timing to pull the upset against a run down Boston team after two mentally grueling series? Instead the Pistons played like a 1994 Ford Taurus in need of a tune-up.

Sportsbook.com opened Boston up obligatory 3.5-point favorite, down a point from series opener, figuring Detroit has a greater need to win after losing Game One. This might seem foolish since the Celtics have won nine straight playoff home games and have reeled off 15 wins in a row at TD Banknorth Garden (12-3 ATS).

When you think about the Detroit, if they aren’t good enough to beat Boston, their legacy will be that of a very good team that either lacked the right players or coaching to take them to the top of the hill. If you eliminate Miami, since they torn apart as quickly as they were built, the Pistons would be the only team since the 1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers, with Julius Erving, Moses Malone and Maurice Cheeks, that assembled a squad that was among the best in basketball for a period of time and one only one NBA championship.

The East Finals resume on ESPN starting at 8:35 Eastern, with Detroit 1-7 ATS in last eight underdog roles.

StatFox Power Line- Boston by 3